Overdose Data
Between 1980 and 2022, there was a 20-fold increase in drug overdose deaths. Between 2023 and 2025, the rate decreased by around one third. The shift began mid-2023 and has remained on the downward trend since that summer.
Drop in Fentanyl Potency
Recent academic analysis of this downturn reveals that a major factor may be a decrease in the potency of the opioid fentanyl. In 2024, synthetic opioids, primarily fentanyl, were involved in 60% of overdose deaths in the United States.
Researchers state that a change in the potency of this drug supply would account for the decrease in overdose deaths.
These findings are based on Drug Enforcement Administration data, government overdose statistics and online drug-use forums. Researchers also note that public health experts have been unable to explain the reduction in overdoses through other causes.
Other Possible Explanations
Experts have posed alternate theories as to why the number of overdose fatalities have dropped. These include treatment, such as inpatient rehab, harm reduction efforts and a return to “normal” pre-Covid numbers.
But researchers argue that all of these factors combined would not account for the significant drop in numbers. They note the demand side has not changed significantly, suggesting the decline is driven by supply-side changes.
This suggests the fentanyl supply from China has reduced in potency, making the powerful opioid less lethal in recent years. Still, other researchers note that this explanation does not fully account for geographic differences in overdose data.
A Temporary Shift
While the decrease in fatal overdoses has been encouraging, researchers warn that these supply-chain shocks are often temporary. Fentanyl producers find new suppliers, new drugs enter the market and drug potencies change again.
Treatment providers hope to sustain the downturn with continued interventions, but some researchers are doubtful that the change will be permanent. Time will tell.
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