But a former senior DEA official says the situation is considerably more complicated. The U.S. drug supply could become even more volatile in the weeks and months ahead.
Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” was killed Sunday by Mexican authorities in an operation reportedly aided by U.S. intelligence.
He led the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, known as CJNG, which the U.S. State Department has described as having the highest cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine trafficking capacity in Mexico, and which federal prosecutors linked to the distribution of fentanyl into the United States.
A DEA Veteran’s Warning: Fragmentation Is the Real Threat
Mike Vigil, former chief of international operations for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, spoke with NPR’s Morning Edition on Monday and offered a sobering assessment.
Unlike other cartel leaders, Vigil told NPR, El Mencho ran CJNG with near-total personal control. That centralized structure creates a specific danger now that he’s gone.
“It’s not good enough to kill the leader of a cartel,” Vigil said, “because normally they fragment, and all of a sudden, you have a proverbial hydra, where instead of one cartel, you have two or three.”
Vigil pointed to a historical precedent: when former Mexican President Felipe Calderón pursued a kingpin strategy between 2006 and 2012, targeting roughly 75% of cartel leadership. The result wasn’t stability, it was fracturing and escalating violence as factions competed for control.
Why This Matters for the U.S. Drug Supply
CJNG was one of the primary sources of illicitly manufactured fentanyl entering the United States.
In a single September 2025 DEA seizure attributed to the cartel, federal agents recovered more than 92 kilograms of fentanyl powder and over 1.1 million counterfeit pills, alongside large quantities of methamphetamine and cocaine.
If CJNG fractures into competing factions following El Mencho’s death, Vigil’s concern is that violence, instability and continued, or increased, drug trafficking could follow.
He told NPR that Mexico needs to move quickly against the cartel’s financial infrastructure, armed wings and mid-to-high-level operatives, and that action must be “based on intelligence.”
For people in active addiction, cartel instability has historically correlated with unpredictable drug supplies, including fluctuations in fentanyl potency and availability that can raise overdose risk.
What This Means for Treatment Seekers
Disruptions in the drug supply, even following law enforcement wins, don’t reduce addiction or the need for treatment. If anything, periods of cartel transition can make street drugs less predictable and more dangerous.
People struggling with opioid use disorder have access to evidence-based care including medication-assisted treatment (MAT) with FDA-approved medications like buprenorphine and methadone, which stabilize dependence regardless of what’s happening in the illicit supply chain.
If you or someone you care about is using fentanyl or other opioids, this is a critical moment to explore treatment, not to wait for the drug supply to stabilize.
Exploring Treatment Options
The cartel landscape may be shifting, but effective addiction treatment is available now. If you’re researching options, consider:
- Verifying that a facility offers MAT for opioid use disorder, which research consistently shows reduces overdose mortality
- Reviewing insurance coverage for inpatient or outpatient rehab, including whether your plan covers detox
- Comparing accredited rehab centers in your area that specialize in opioid or polysubstance treatment
Rehab.com’s directory includes thousands of verified treatment centers across all 50 states. Call
800-985-8516
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to speak with a treatment advisor.
